Bitcoin traders say BTC’s trend change decision rests at $65K

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Bitcoin (BTC) price seeks to recover from its June losses, but onchain data suggests that BTC may run into resistance around the $65,000 level.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC trading at $62,288, down 0.5% over the last 24 hours and 8.6% over the last 30 days. This follows an extended downtrend in June that reversed all the gains made in May.

According to Coinglass data, when Bitcoin has had a negative June, it tends to bounce back strongly in July. In fact, BTC has shown an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% in July.

Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: Coinglass

However, technical and onchain data reveals that any attempts at recovery this month may be curtailed by sell-side pressure from the $65,000 level. A look at the daily chart shows that Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance in its recovery path.

This is the zone between $61,817 and $56,914, embraced by the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA, respectively.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

“In the short-term, we should expect some resistance around the ~$65,000 level as short-term market speculators may look to exit their positions at a “breakeven” level,” analysts at Blockware Intelligence declared in the latest edition of the newsletter.

“Last summer, when BTC lost the STH RP support level, price traded sideways for another two months before finally breaking out again.”

Note that the June drawdown pushed Bitcoin’s spot price well below the widely tracked short-term holder (STH) cost basis, raising concerns over deeper corrections

According to data from LookIntoBitcoin, the cost basis for short-term holders was $64,513 as of June 28, compared to the spot price, which was hovering around $60,317.

Bitcoin short-term holder realized price. Source: Lookintobitcoin

Realized price or aggregate cost basis refers to the average price at which coins were last spent onchain.

This means that short-term holders now face losses and could attempt to exit the market at a loss or breakeven, potentially adding to selling pressure near the $65,000 mark.

In a Bitcoin analysis on X, independent analyst Ali Martinez corroborated this outlook saying that BTC price could run into resistance above $65,000 based on the MVRV metric.

Source: Ali Martinez

According to Martinez, a breach of this level could potentially open the path for Bitcoin’s rally toward $78,700.

Interestingly, the Bitcoin 1-month liquidation heatmap by Coinglass shows sell-bids amounting to $1.23 billion building up at $64,940

Related: Bitcoin circles $63K as liquidity sparks hopes of 40% BTC price gains

Meanwhile, Thomas Fahrer, the founder of the crypto company Apollo, is more optimistic about Bitcoin’s ability to rise above $65,000.

“$940M of #Bitcoin shorts will be liquidated at 65K,” he declared in a July 2 post on the X social media platform.

Bitcoin liquidation chart. Source: Thomas Fahrer

“The first rule of Bitcoin is don’t short Bitcoin,” he added in a follow-up post. “The flows will come, and shorts will be punished.”