Polymarket monthly volume hits $100M as presidential race heats up

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Decentralized predictions platform Polymarket hit $100 million in monthly trading volume in June as punters upped their stakes on how they think the United States presidential election will play out.

At the time of writing, there are $203.3 million worth of bets in “Presidential Election Winner 2024” — which consists of individual “Yes” or “No” bets across 17 prediction markets.

U.S. President Donald Trump is currently the favorite, with 62% odds that he will win the U.S. election — totaling $24.7 million in bets for and against.

Second is current U.S. President Joe Biden, who has $23.9 million in bets on whether or not he will make it as president for a second term. Those odds, however, have fallen from 34% to 21% since his lackluster Presidential Debate performance on June 28.

Meanwhile, odds for Democrats Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama spiked as some political commentators questioned whether Biden should drop out of the presidential race.

Polymarket’s Presidential Election Winner 2024 market. Source: Polymarket.

Other betting markets related to the elections have also garnered millions in bets.

Biden’s recent debate performance has also led to a spike in “Yes” bets on “Biden drops out of presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4” markets, which are now at 43% and 9%, respectively. Over $10 million in bets have been placed in those markets.

There are also millions of dollars in bets placed on whether American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren could win the presidency, but those markets show a less than 1% chance at this stage.

Polymarket, which runs on Ethereum sidechain Polygon, saw $109.9 million in trading volume in June — its first time crossing the $100 million mark, according to a Dune Analytics dashboard.

Trading volumes between January and May hovered between $38.9 million and $63 million, which marked a 620% increase from the previous five months (August-December, 2023).

Polymarket’s change in monthly trading volume since September, 2020: Source: Dune Analytics

The number of monthly active traders also skyrocketed 115% to 29,266 in June.

Related: Bitcoin spikes as betting markets favor Trump during debate with Biden

The total value locked in Polymarket is now $40.2 million, up nearly 69% over the last 30 days, Token Terminal data shows.

Cryptocurrency prices and the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 markets have also tallied large trading volumes on Polymarket.

Polymarket, which launched in June 2020, recently raised $70 million and was spearheaded by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund.

Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase said decentralized prediction markets are a way to cut through misleading narratives and view the unvarnished truth.

“Prediction markets are freedom preserving technology that move societies forward,” Cohler said in a June 30 X post.

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