BTC average change in retail demand falls to 5-month low, could a 75% rally be next?

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Average Bitcoin (BTC) demand among retail investors has dropped to its lowest point in five months to levels last seen in January — which ended in a 75% surge over the following two months.

The average monthly change in demand for Bitcoin among retail investors — those with up to $10,000 in transfer volume — has fallen to negative 17% over the last 30 days, according to data shared to X on June 10 by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler.

Adler added that “a similar previous drop to -18%” in January saw Bitcoin increase from $40,000 to $70,000 — when it surged after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved in the United States, propelling Bitcoin to its mid-March $73,679 all-time high.

“I also noticed that this cohort reacts quickly to any market changes,” Adler said.

Source: Axel Adler Jr

Last month, Adler used the same measure to show that demand dropped by 31% over the 17 days prior to May 24, falling to negative 14.50%. He pointed to increased interest in GameStop (GME) and Ether (ETH), possibly due to the initial approval of spot Ether ETFs.

Analysts have previously suggested the shift in Bitcoin demand is due to several factors, including the inflation-tracking U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

When the CPI decreases, it can make perceived riskier assets like Bitcoin more appealing to investors as traditional savings and term deposits offer less lucrative returns as interest rates drop.

10x Research head researcher Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph in May that CPI must drop to 3.3% on June 12 — the date when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the data — in order for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs.

Bitcoin dropped below $69,000 on June 11 — the asset’s November 2021 all-time high — a level closely watched by traders. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $67,350, down 3.19% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,350. Source: CoinMarketCap

The sudden decline wiped out $52.87 million worth of Bitcoin long positions the past day. Open Interest (OI) remained above the closely watched $35 billion mark, per CoinGlass data.

Related: BTC price risks $60K dive as Bitcoin bid liquidity thins on new 3% dip

Despite traders’ hopes for Bitcoin to quickly bounce back above $70,000 after dropping below it on June 8, it has yet to do so.

Future traders do not seem to be anticipating its recovery in the near term, despite the CPI results due on June 12, with $2.14 billion in short positions at stake if it does rebound.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.