Bitcoin volatility hovering within 6% of record low levels

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) price had such little movement over the 15 days leading up to the sharp decline on June 7 that it approached historic lows seen across all 15-day periods in Bitcoin’s history.

The period between May 24 and June 7 was in the “bottom 6% of occurrences” for volatility, according to Swan Bitcoin chief investment officer Rapha Zagury.

“The horizontal blue line is the latest 15-day rolling volatility number of 23%. It certainly looks close to the lower level,” Zagury explained in a June 7 post on X, pointing to the extended period of time that Bitcoin was “stuck in a range.”

Source: Rapha Zagury

After the 15-day period, during which it traded within a 7% range, fluctuating between $66,936 and $71,656, Bitcoin’s price sharply declined by 3.33% to $69,264, according to CoinMarketCap data.

The plummet followed the United States Employment Situation Summary Report publishing stronger job growth than expected, an indication that inflation rates may not be cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on June 11 — a closely monitored metric for Bitcoin price predictions by analysts in recent times.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $69,246.

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However, Zagury highlighted the outcomes of Bitcoin’s price during previous periods of similarly low volatility or lower. Over the next 30 days, the average return stood at 20.95%, with the minimum return declining a further 32.06%, while the maximum return at 218.40%.

When looking at the course of 365 days following previous similar low volatility periods, the outcomes are even more significant. Although the minimum return for this period stands at 55.59%, the average return is 820.82%.

Zagu reiterated though it isn’t any indication for the future, he just believes there is “value in learning from the past.”

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.