Bitcoin (BTC) spiked past $43,500 into the Feb. 5 Wall Street open as United States markets reacted to Chinese stock turmoil.
China’s losses spark talk of recession
Bitcoin had heated up into the week’s first Asia trading session as China’s CSI 1000 index shed 8% in a single day, prompting authorities to impose further controls on short selling.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter queried whether the country might be in recession, noting a “disconnect” between large and small-cap stocks.
“China’s market has officially lost $7 TRILLION in value over the last 3 years,” part of a reaction on X (formerly Twitter) acknowledged.
Even as China has vowed to stabilize its markets, investors are worried.
Many believe that China will focus primarily on large cap stocks.
Hence why there’s a huge disconnect between large and small caps now.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 5, 2024
Bitcoin volatility was also aided by a marked increase in open interest, this amounting to $775 million, per data uploaded to X from J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), meanwhile, came out lower than in previous days at around 2,600 BTC, continuing an encouraging downtrend.
Another big decrease from the most recent trading day on Friday.
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) February 5, 2024
$25,000 zone gets fresh liquidity
Analyzing order book composition, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading tool Material Indicators, had a fresh BTC price warning in store.
Bitcoin, he showed, still lacked liquidity immediately below the spot price, making a return to $42,000 especially easy.
Zooming out, liquidity was increasing far lower — around $25,000, signalling what Alan described as growing sentiment for a dip.
“That doesn’t mean that price is going right here immediately, or even at all, but it does mean that there is some sentiment for this level now,” he explained in his latest video update.
“Is it true sentiment or are they just positioned here for a potential wick? That remains to be seen, but I will be watching this to see if more liquidity comes into this range because, in my opinion, liquidity equals sentiment.”
In this #BTC analysis we’ll look at candle charts as well as order book and order flow data in #FireCharts across time frames to give a clear view of where the signs of strength and weakness are in the chart.
So far, BTC has failed to print a full candle above the 50-Day MA… pic.twitter.com/BRzWdZU5yZ
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) February 5, 2024
Alan added that the ladder of ask liquidity overhead spot, this itself moving lower, suggested that now snap upside to $45,000 or higher was likely in the immediate short term.
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