3 Altcoins to Buy As Ethereum Tops Bitcoin: Token Metrics Chart Master – Business Insider


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Two months ago, Bill Noble, a senior market analyst at Token Metrics, made a prediction: Cryptocurrencies will slump in September before embarking on a monster rally in October that rolls through the year’s end. And he was right — at least about the first two legs of the forecast. 
Bitcoin fell 7.3% in a rocky September but roared 38% higher in October. Ether, the native coin of the second-biggest crypto, retreated more than 12% in September before rising 22% in the next month.
While Noble’s boldest predictions — bitcoin hitting $100,000 in 2021 and ethereum reaching $6,000 to $12,000 — have yet to come true, he told Insider in a recent interview that he was still bullish on the top two tokens, even as he revised his 2021 price targets downward for each.
Bitcoin, which changed hands for about $62,000 as of Monday, will likely end the year between $54,000 and $79,000, Noble said. He added that ethereum, valued at $4,350 as of Monday, would outpace bitcoin by climbing anywhere from 38 to 84%, landing between $6,000 and $8,000. Noble said it would be an “orderly rally,” meaning there would be dips to buy.
Ethereum is a better bet than bitcoin at this point, according to Noble, because interest in ethereum futures is rising, while bitcoin trading has been relatively muted, despite the launches of bitcoin-futures exchange-traded funds. Many prospective bitcoin buyers, including mutual funds, are waiting on the sidelines for a 10% dip in the crypto before getting in, Noble said.
Though a bitcoin-futures ETF expands access to the digital currency to investors on traditional brokerage firms like Fidelity or Charles Schwab, it also has a downside that few are talking about, Noble said: It makes it easier for hedge funds to short bitcoin, or bet against it.
Projecting what’s next for cryptocurrencies is part art, part science, Noble said. Unlike stocks, which can be valued rather easily using many metrics like price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios of the companies they represent, most digital assets don’t produce cash. 
That lack of fundamentals makes tokens much more difficult to evaluate, which leaves many crypto analysts to rely heavily on technical analysis, or the study of charts of price trends in assets.
While the first step of Noble’s three-part prediction process is to study charts to spot patterns, he uses much more than technical analysis in his crypto calls.
Noble relies on Token Metrics‘ artificial-intelligence research platform, which helps him focus his analysis by filtering out low-quality tokens, he said. The software uses technical analysis, “textbook-style risk management,” and machine learning to give tokens a quality rating and find combinations of tokens that work best, he added. Then, the AI platform pairs the top-ranked coins and places them in short- and long-term portfolios to compare their performance with that of bitcoin.
Finally, Noble leans on researchers at Token Metrics who dive deep into coins that the firm’s AI platform highlights. The process, called “tokenomics,” looks at cryptos’ fundamentals by learning about their value propositions and the pain points they’re designed to solve, in addition to their underlying code, their issuance, supply, and staking mechanisms, Noble said.
While cryptocurrencies have had a year to remember as tokens rally and support from individuals and institutions steadily grows, there’s still a vocal army of crypto critics saying that the space has characteristics of a bubble and will eventually pop.
In what may be a surprise to some, Noble doesn’t necessarily disagree with that assessment, but he said the broad support of bitcoin and ethereum among big-money investors meant a repeat of the cryptocurrency meltdown of four years ago was improbable.
“As the legacy world gets more involved in crypto, it becomes less and less likely that big cryptos will experience the crash they did in 2017,” Noble said. “Now, that doesn’t mean little cryptos and ‘meme coins’ like shiba inu (SHIB) can’t do what they’ve done lately. The speculative fires in the everything bubble is still in effect.”
Three altcoins stand out from the pack, according to Noble. Below are each crypto’s symbol, market capitalization, and commentary from Noble.
Symbol: SOL
Market cap: $61 billion
Commentary: “We believe solana may be able to go as high as $350. That’s a smart-contract competitor to ethereum. It’s also got a lot of expandability — or a lot of flexibility — to have DeFi running on it.”
Symbol: DOT
Market cap: $46.6 billion
Commentary: “I think we’re out of consensus on polkadot in the sense that we expect there’s a possibility of polkadot going from $40 to $80. And I don’t know if it’s this market cycle, but we see $100 as possible.
“Polkadot, in English, is Web3. It’s a critical component of the third generation of the internet. So everyone was talking about polkadot in March. No one is talking about polkadot now, even though polkadot has kind of started its launch process. I guess you could call it the maturation of the polkadot ecosystem.”
Symbol: NEAR
Market cap: $5.4 billion
Commentary: “We’re also looking at something called near protocol. We think there’s a similarity there to solana in terms of its ability to participate in DeFi 2.0. DeFi 2.0 is a term that is actively being used by large players.
“DeFi 2.0 is very complex. There’s an emerging idea that decentralized entities will be able to have control over liquidity and collateral, whereas in DeFi 1.0, liquidity and collateral would just chase whatever the best incentive out there was, which wasn’t sustainable.”

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